Camilla Cavendish
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It seems to be an iron law of bureaucracies that officials answer the question they decide to hear, not the question you asked. Those of us who thought we had been told how many immigrants are working here have discovered, this week, that we had been told something else entirely.
When Peter Hain said that there were 800,000 foreign workers in Britain, he had apparently meant — oops! — 1.1 million. And those, it turned out, were only people who had got jobs that had been created since 1997. Except — oops! — that the National Statistician had already told us in July that there were 1.5 million of them. And hers was also an underestimate — oops! — because the Labour Force Survey on which it is based does not include anyone who is foreign-born but has now become a UK citizen, anyone who expects to work here for less than a year, anyone who has lived at their current address for less than six months and anyone who was getting a few beers in at the Walkabout pub when the Labour Force Survey rang their doorbell. Oops!
Knocking on doors may have been fine for the compilers of the Domesday Book, when the population was less than four million, there wasn't much to do of an evening, and the compilers were armed with swords. As a way of tracking the unprecedented movement of people around the globe today, it is facile. I now understand why ministers have never tried to estimate illegals: they can't even count those who are paying tax; let alone dependants, who local councils claim are using doctors and schools for which they have insufficient government grant.
It is diabolically difficult to count people in a dynamic economy. But this whole saga betrays a limpness of purpose and a reluctance to acknowledge, let alone debate, what has been a deliberate policy of mass immigration.
Does it matter if ministers make mistakes? The difference between 800,000 and 1.1 million is tiny: about 1 per cent of the labour force. But it does matter that vague estimates are presented as hard data. And that they always seem to be underestimates, never errors in the other direction. The official habit of underplaying population shifts has had the effect of censoring debate. Anyone who expresses concern can be accused of exaggerating.
There has also been a tendency to talk as if the immigration question is almost exclusively Eastern European. On Monday, according to the BBC, Liam Byrne, the Immigration Minister, called Tory proposals for annual limits a “smokescreen”, because 80 per cent of immigrants to Britain are Eastern European and are entitled to come here. But if that was true, Mr Bryne's proposals for a points system would be unworkable by the same token. In fact, government figures suggest that only about a third of migrants are from the accession countries.
With the notable exception of Mr Byrne himself, ministers still tend to treat the subject as if it were entirely a question of economics. Of course immigrants make a positive contribution to the economy. One of the peculiarities of the Prime Minister's slogan of “British jobs for British workers” is that some of our jobs only exist as a direct result of the skills and spending power of the immigrants, who are boosting the economy. But the equation is complex: higher economic growth translates into better living standards for the elite, who enjoy cheaper builders and cleaners, but not necessarily for builders whose wages have been undercut.
But we cannot simply reduce people to statistics. We are human beings, not units of production. In a densely populated country there are deep human concerns about strangers that have nothing to do with race but everything to do with the pace of change. The Office for National Statistics (which you are also at liberty not to believe) predicts that the UK population will grow from 60 million to 70 million in 20 years, mostly owing to migration and migrant births. That would be a change unprecedented in our history.
So this issue really is all about numbers. But not perhaps in the way the Government thinks. It is setting up a committee of economists, which will help to establish a new points system by deciding how many workers the economy needs. But the idea that you could predict those needs is it in itself wildly old-fashioned.
There is only one part of the economy where you can reliably predict how many workers you will need. That is medicine. And there a row is going on that shows the confusion at the heart of government. Ten years ago a decision was taken to expand medical schools, with the explicit intention of making the UK less reliant on foreign doctors. More British graduates came through the system, costing the NHS £250,000 apiece. But some are ending up unemployed. The Department of Health (DH) says that at least 1,200 of those graduates will be unable to get a job this year, because of competition from non-EU applicants.
Medicine is not a normal market: the training and posts are funded by the taxpayer. The DH wants to give priority to good UK applicants. But the Home Office will not alter its Highly Skilled Migrants Programme.
This little twist to the summer saga of junior doctors was only brought to light, in the British Medical Journal, by a retired doctor, Graham Winyard. Immigration is still too sensitive for other medics to discuss.
The question is no longer whether immigrants are good or bad. They are generally good. It is how many the country can cope with in one go. That is why we have to get the numbers right. The only way to do that is to re-establish embarkation controls and laboriously count who comes in and out. Some people in government feel that would be too expensive. But the political cost of having lost control is mounting by the day.
Camilla Cavendish has been a McKinsey management consultant, an aid worker, and CEO of a not-for-profit company. She is now a leader writer and columnist on The Times
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The labour party reckon on immigrants voting more labour than tory, that's how they see their future. Like all governments except China, they refuse to face the simple facts that the earth cannot support the present six and a half billion humans at a decent standard of living for all. Instead they just gaze at the fact that there are one and a half million extra mouths to feed every week. And hope no one will notice! They are just
not responsible!
David Vinter, Louth, Lincs,, UK.
I feel totally betrayed by the New Labour ethos that has lead to this parlous state. The total incompetance of the politicians, that have caused me to leave the country of my birth and can trace my family back to the 17th century, has made feel both angry and extremely sad but also relieved that I have been able to escape. Experience of revisiting England from time to time makes me more convinced that I was right to leave. Travelling on trains in the SE that has more foreigners than the indigineous passengers is a depressing experience. I have paid tax, and still do pay, for 54 years to a government that cannot count to support people they don't know they even know. If I had run my businesses this way I would have landed up in court. When are we going to make this government accountable. The short term affects of this type of immigration are bad enough but I dread the potential long term affects will have even more dangers for the welfare of our economy and culture.
JOHN, LISBON, PORTUGAL
I ,as an Englishman ,have never ever been treated with such contempt, but I like 90% of the population am getting just a little sick of it. I want to know when we are going to stop what's happening to our country. When is the population going to stand up and say enough is enough.
preddo53, leeds,
'But the Home Office will not alter its Highly Skilled Migrants Programme'
This is incorrect the Home Office has altered the HSMP. Previously if you were a doctor you could pretty mush show your qualifications and you received the visa straight aware. They have now removed this 'doctor' option and to get the visa now they have to meet the same requirements as all other applicants.
Emma, London,
hi
Immigration has become the hottest word nowdays but it has different issues
1. being part of eu and not putting restrictions on the numbers we have 800,000 people undercutting the locals here.
after all the English from here are also allowed to go to Poland to work but no one will for obvious reasons.
2. not having border controls: truckload of illegals with no checks on them
3. non integration of the asian communities and still allowing them to get their family here through marriage who again dont speak english and on top of that allowing them the benefits.
in the end the only people the labour or tories will be able to stop are the one's who come on work permits to the country, these people are not allowed to claim any benefits, pay the same tax as others, cannot stay in this country if they dont work, are educated, speak english. it will be made difficult for these people to come in and then the government will claim to the normal people that they are controlling immigration.
tarun, birmingham,
John Smith, in fact until recently a lot of doctors and nurses could in fact walk in to the UK providing they were suitably qualified without any need for their employer to prove they could not fill the job locally. This is becuase of a little technically called a shortage occupations list which means the visa is a rubber stamp excercise providing profession registration has been achieved.
Jon Hatswell, Woking, UK
I never thought I would say this as I sound like some deranged conspiracy theorist - but I do now believe that this Government is intent on destroying every sign of that land once known as 'England'.
H, London,
Our politicians are not listening, I'm not a BNP supporter but I think thats the only way to shake the rascals up, maybe then they will listen to "real life people" facing the stress every day.
Titus, Romford,
The questions of economics as they pertain to immigrants in the U.K. will surley change as what makes the U.K. united in the first place. Just wait until YOU are expected to learn and speak their language as we in the U.S. are expected to do.It seems there are two things immigrants, legal as well as illegal set out to do on arriving ,is to head off to the local welfare office, then set about living as if they never left where they came from. Challenge the notion? Your called that vile word of the left - Racist! Don't think that Britain can loose its indentity its happening here in the U.S..
Larry Cline, Ft Lauderdale, Florida
Statistics are being used disingenuously to disguise the true impact of mass immigration. Whenever the old establishment parties refer to immigration they emphasise the'net' numbers entering Britain as if this was the extent of the challenge. But of course this figure is achieved by subtracting emigrants (and most of them are native Britons) from those arriving. The number of immigrants is not reduced by the number of emigrants - in fact the impact of the arrival of so many foreigners is underlined by so many of our own people leaving. Similarly, popluation growth from immgration is put at 70 per cent of the total. But average family size for native Britons includes fewer than 2 children - thus the remaining 30 per cent of growth has to come from immigrants that are already here having large families. With the departure of so many Britons and the huge expansion of ethnic 'minorities' , we - i.e. the English - will be the foreigners in our own country before this century's end.
david lovibond, Devizes, England
The (deliberate?) confusion over immigration numbers is the essence of the political answer - to make listeners think they've heard something definite, whereas they've actually heard something hedged around with qualifications and ambiguities, which at some later period can be denied. Blair's famous claim that missiles could be launched 'within 45 minutes' to justify the invasion of Iraq is a prime example. You heard him say it, I heard him say it, parliament heard him say it, but did he say it? Of course he didn't!
Colin Jordan, Chiswick, London
Although it might be painful for the people in that 'warphole' of tremenderous change. But gosh...with a population of 70 millions in only 20 years from now... France and Germany will be left behind (Germany shrinks, yet propagates again the Nazi-view of inferior foreign guestsworkers, and France wasn't created to do anything except being beaten). Think about it. ;-)
Thorsten, Edinburgh,
Clive S, you'll be amazed to learn that you can't just walk into the UK from Bangalore and take a job. You need a work visa; if you're being paid as a doctor by a government body, you're hardly likely to get a job without a work visa; and it's a requirement for a work visa, everywhere I've been, that the job can't be filled by locals.
I'll leave you with your uninformed naivety, it clearly makes it easier for you to believe you're always right.
John Smith, Groningen, Netherlands
I did a survey and found out that there were over 5 million here and that figure is optimistic and could well be much much higher.
D Case, Newquay,
England has been totally betrayed by New Labour, that is the simple truth of it. My country has been wrecked. How on earth did they win the last election? Thinking of emigrating myself, since I am sick of what has happened to England and I want to get out before I self combust in a fit of righteous indignation.
Richard, Worcester, England
How hard is it to count foreign workers? Give them an NI number with a specific identifier or short term expiry date and then add up all those NI numbers with the identifier and hey presto you have your number.
Al, Newcastle,
I don't want to live in a green and pleasant land. I want to live in a crowded traffic ridden island with over crowded hospitals and schools surrounded by housing estates and religious madmen. This is how Labour sees the problem, I just want all immigration stopped now but then I'm a simple fellow.
Frederick, London , UK
Medical students don't cost the NHS £250k each. The taxpayer picks up the tab. The NHS couldn't care less where its juniors come from which is the problem. If I was an Indian consultant in a regional hospital with hire and fire powers what would stop me recruiting from the old alma mater in Bangalore?
Clive S , E Sussex,
This government advocates multiculturalism but does not have to live with the consequences as we do.
Richard Brady, wallington, uk
Labour politicians hold traditional English life and culture in unprecedented contempt. Culture is transmitted through family and social groupings, not political institutions which are originally a manifestation of the former.
But whatever Labour does it will hardly matter since the lunatic EU bureaucrats are planning to bring in 20 million immigrants from Asia and Africa, who after five years, will be able to move freely through the EU. Given that continental EU countries impose covert restrictions on foreign workers (you won't find any Polish policeman in Germany) we all know where most of these will end up.
Francis Tuttle, Madrid,
Whilst immigrants at the moment are doing the jobs that are not being taken by our own unemployed and are driving down wages as a result, what happens when they cotton on to the fact that in a lot of cases they can live a reasonable life on benefits with perhaps a bit of work in the black economy for good measure.
pat, blackpool,
The Government has an anti-English policy.
What better way to destroy a culture than by swamping it with others?
Martin, Reading, UK
Barnett Formula and Scotland is the main cause of this problem.
Scotland needs to talk up it's population to get a large share of Barnett.
Englands population is talked down to enable Scotland to keep it's fake share.
Example Scotland claims to be 9% of UK, yet produces only 7% of new undergraduates.
JAMES, Dundee,