No, Blair, we haven't misunderstood
at 01:40
The Guardian on Thursday presages a Downing Street Press-fest at which Tony Blair will apparently claim that we've all "misunderstood me over the Middle East".
Apparently...he will "face down his critics today over his controversial handling of the Middle East crisis by insisting that he has been working throughout for a ceasefire in Lebanon and that his position has been misunderstood. He will argue at a Downing Street press conference that he wanted a ceasefire, but only if it was coupled with a clear understanding that the Hizbullah militia would be disarmed."
So that'll be a "no" then Tony, we've understood you perfectly well. You don't actually give a stuff about the real people whose lives have been cut short and homes and livelihoods torn apart by what's been happening (actually on both sides but since Israel has all the responsibilities and moral capacity of a democratic nation state they bear most of the blame).
You're happiest with your seven good buddies tucked up in some posh hotel like prep schoolers playing that great game of Diplomacy or like the crowned heads posturing in the pier ballroom on "Oh what a lovely war!". You want a ceasefire but only once 20% of a country has been displaced or left utterly destitute. Can you imagine not wanting a ceasefire until after London and the South East region had been evacuated, bulldozed and occupied? No.
The "rules of war" and human rights were established to prevent a recurrence of razing villages, treating civilian areas as battle grounds to target your artillery at. I actually have more respect for what Israel are now doing - starting on the eyeball to eyeball anti-guerilla fighting on the ground - than the softening up and remote control village clearances by artillery and bombing (now acknowledged by Israel to have been completely intentional all along as some of us predicted).
You'd rather condone human rights abuses and war crimes when they're being carried out by the lot on "our side" (apparently) than stick up for what is right - the defense of the innocents (also on both sides). Presumably your party is worried that they'll never be allowed into International Labour Organization meetings ever again having surrendered any claim to being the champions of ordinary people.
I don't believe anyone can really talk properly about what happens in the future until the guns have fallen silent. The difference between that happening two weeks ago and next week will only have been that "our ally" achieved most of its illegal and immoral military aims before you made them stop with hundreds dead and hundreds of thousands displaced. And I have no doubt Hezbullah is now stronger by a few village butchers, bankers and undertakers because nobody else was going to help them fight for their homes, lands and livelihoods.
While governments are pushing options round tables thousands of miles away, hundreds of thousands of lives are being uprooted and devastated. The poor and excluded are always the victims of war.
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Comments
I don't actually believe that military actions can ever, or perhaps rarely ever, help - I am a pacifist.
But sure, if they wanted to police" Hezbollah, then the only decent way to do it - within the rules of war and the rule of law - where you can be as sure as possible that you are not targetting civilians, wittingly or unwittingly, is to fight face to face - just like we had to do on the streets of Belfast and Derry.
However, Israel said right at the beginning they were "going to set back Lebanon by twenty years" and more recently that the aim *was* in fact to clear the area of everyone.
So you can claim that their aim was "merely" to police Hezbollah. They seem to be saying otherwise, or at least that their idea of policing is to clear a few hundred square kilometers of anything larger than a gnat, regardless of how many innocents that displaces.
It's a right royal fuck up and holding Israel to account for its actions long before now might have shown up the injustice of what they have been doing and prompted different options weeks ago.
The anger that burns in me, however, is righteous anger about the people who are dying and being displaced - and who are increasingly lost in the language of geo-political ambitions.
My contention is that warrior politicians are getting round what was expected in war after the horrendous killing fields of the first half of the twentieth century by claiming that they do this, that and the other to avoid "collateral damage", as if that makes it all okay.
That "collateral damage" is eminently forseeable in the sort of tactics Israel has been playing. That "collateral damage" is someone's mother, someone's child, someone's livelihood, someone's home.
The something more than the population of Northern Ireland has been displaced. What's right or proportionate about that?"
Jock, I accept that you come from a pacific point of view. Of course, the problem (probably one you have run against before) is that pacifism doesn't provide a solution to the problem of protecting Israel from an organisation that wants to destroy it now.
Your reluctant position is that a ground offensive is better than an air offensive. I'm afraid that this is not neccessarily so. Israel, in reality, has been careful (with the usual caveats attached) to avoid civilian casualties. They have, on the whole, only been targetting known Hizbollah hives and infrastructural targets. This may seem unlikely in light of Qana - but if Israel had been trying to kill the civilian population then tens of thousands of people would lie dead rather than hundreds of people. After all, if Israel can flatten the infrastructure of the country so effectively (something you would not dispute, I imagine), had they intended to kill large numbers of civilians - or been indifferent to such killing - the death toll would have been much higher (as it was in Iraq in the first few weeks of the invasion there).
Of course, had the civilian population of southern Lebanon not fled (and yes, this is a tragedy for those people), hand to hand combat by a ground force weeding out Hizbollah fighters would have become a bloody, intractable conflict and would have taken on far greater Lebanese nationalist resonance than the current struggle. This is, after all, a situation where Hizbollah hide behind civilians - and you can sure that Israel would have made mistakes in house to house fighting; and nervous soldiers would have been more trigger happy.
Of course, the difference with Northern Ireland is that we never had to do something similar. We never tried to weed out the IRA on a house to house basis in the Falls Road or in Crossmaglen.
I recognise your outrage and your anger. The problem as I see it is that I can see no other solution to the problem, unless Israel simply agrees to not respond to attacks by Hizbollah on its soil and to accede to its demands. This is impossible and undesirable.
Let's get this very well armed" stuff into some perspective. Even Hezbollah say they have 13,000 various "katyusha" type rockets.
These are crap. They're battlefield saturation weapons - not targetted - you fire off a volley of up to 48 at a time and see where they land.
In the first two weeks, they fired some 2500 of them against Israel's 40,000 artillery munitions - no doubt the numbers are rising proportionately as the weeks go by - the difference is that Israel will have tens of thousands more delivered by air from Oxfordshire while Hezbollah will run out in a few days.
I don't hold a brief for Hezbollah. I think they are criminals and terrorists who chose to take what may well have been a legitemate grievance (the imprisonment of Lebanese by Israel) out by unacceptable means - kidnapping a couple of Israeli military (note - military, at least) personnel.
But the pounding southern Lebanon has taken is no way proportionate to the threat posed by this comparatively definitely NOT "very well armed" criminal gang.
Further, if that criminal gang turns out to be the only group willing and able to stand up to people bombing your villages and, self-avowedly now, clearing whole swathes of the population, is it any different from self-defense to join them?
However, I am a pacifist. I simply do not believe that fighting does anything other than kill innocents, and always the poorest and least able to defend themselves are the worst hit.
While Hezbollah are a criminal terrorist gang, Israel are a nation state. Bound by the rules they have agreed to keeping as a nation state.
Yes, they should have sent in ground troops straight away in some form or another. It's not as if we're talking vast areas here - not much different from sending a few squad cars from Oxford to Chipping Norton of an evening to quell some disturbance - and Israel are reputed to have this in and out SAS type strike capability.
And that's what's needed to avoid civilian casualties. People on the ground fighting eyeball to eyeball with people you can see in front of you are a threat because they're pointing guns at you and won't put them down when asked.
It's not rocket science, it's just political will (to committing soldiers who might die instead of remote control destruction from behind the sights of a 155mm self-propeled gun). The IRA were almost certainly better armed decades ago than Hezbollah are now, and we didn't need or want to do all this. We even held inquiries and inquests whenever a non-combatant ended up dead - will Israel hold an inquest into Qana and god knows wherever else? And what good will it be if they do?
An eye for an eye will make the world go blind. And Hezbollah don't need to agree to anything, there simply needs to be a mechanism by which the rule of law can stop them, or failing that, prosecute and punish them if they continue to behave criminally."
Oh, and I hold Blair and Bush just as guilty over Afghanistan and Iraq, or Putin in Chechnya. This is not anti-Israel, it's anti-war as a way of settling differences. Since you seem to also be getting more shrill about claiming some of us don't understand what we're on about or aren't thinking clearly.
So, Jock, as I understand it you advocate a ground invasion. Given this is what Israel are now doing, I take it you support them? Or does the previous action (involving air strikes) invalidate your preferred course of action (ground invasion). If so you are in a curious logical position. That is: in favour of a ground invasion as long as it is not preceded by air-strikes; once air-strikes are undertaken there is no justification for a ground invasion, despite that the original aim for which you thought a ground invasion was justified (disarming Hizbollah, I assume) has not yet been achieved.
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Aside from your anti-Blair rant, Jock, can you tell me how you think Israel should have sought to respond to an unprovoked attack by a very well armed, surprising well trained and well organised terrorist organisation who hide among civilians and are committed to Israel's destruction? Because, so far, I'm really not getting a sense of how Israel might respond to a real and present threat on its own border which, unlike Israel, have absolutely no regard for human rights, democracy, or the norms of international conflict.
The problem, frankly, with a tea and biscuits approach (if we got all the sides together....") is that it involves compromising and negotiating with Hizbollah whose aims are impossible, inhuman and unjust.
So just what should Israel have done? And what should she do now? And why do you think that Hizbollah are going to agree to stop attacking Israel?"