Only fifty more months like June...

...and households on average incomes will be able to afford to get on the housing ladder again:

From the Guardian House prices suffer biggest fall in 5 years as mini-boom stalls:

Rupert Jones and Angela Balakrishnan
Friday July 7, 2006
The Guardian

House prices fell by their largest monthly amount for almost six years in June, lopping £2,200 off the value of an average home, according to Britain's largest mortgage lender.

The 1.2% decline reported by the Halifax yesterday was blamed in part on householders feeling the pinch from higher utility bills and fears that interest rates were set to rise. The distractions of the World Cup are also likely to have caused what may be a temporary lull in buyer interest.

But there's another interesting factor at work in here:

"Substantial increases in utility bills and above-inflation council tax rises are putting pressure on householders' finances, with the majority of the impact of these increases yet to be felt," said Mr Ellis (Halifax)

Utility bills - well it certainly ain't telecommunications costs, so presumably it must be energy. Our houses aren't fit for a post oil-age world, if that's what we are about to enter. The signs are not good on energy costs - already elsewhere (though I can't find the link at the moment) it was reported that consumer spending estimates have been revised downwards because people have 10% (yes, a whopping TEN per cent) less disposable income for goods and non-energy related services because they are feeling the pinch from higher energy costs.

And note the property tax angle too. If the Lib Dems remove all vestiges of domestic property tax, what do *you* think will happen to house prices, everything else being equal?


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Comments

*Ding!* Thank you for playing. But wrong! Property prices rise if there is no property tax.

Meaning that we would be giving a double or triple whammy to all those young wannabe home owners - charging them more in local income tax while they pay more in rent and watch the first rung of the ownership ladder lifted up out of reach even further.

Don't we tax property prices... stamp duty isn't it* (I'm delibrately skipping Revenue Law on my course, so apologies for the ignorance)?
Remove that, and the prices immediately go down (although they would rise in the medium term, right? Assuming the market can support an ever upwardly trend)

* Which I think is a tax on the transaction, not the property... So wait, where's the property tax itself?

They'd go down - but then the Treasury would be short of cash.

Yes, Stamp Duty is a transaction tax but is based on the price of the property. If Stamp Duty were lifted property prices would also rise immediately - not in the medium term. And some by quite a lot - because the way it is calculated makes it sensible, if annoying to vendors, to keep their asking prices below each threshold - which is why you see a lot of properties selling around particular levels - £250k and $550k I think.

Council Tax is our main property tax. As you know it is party policy to replace that, but not with another tax based on property - rather with an income tax.

Council Tax is a blunt and regressive mechanism and rightly we should want rid of it. But the effect of removing that one remaining property tax would be to lift any downward pressure it has on property prices and set them free to rise to reflect the loss of that impost.

When we get the chance at conference therefore, if you ever want to own a home, best vote with your wallet and ensure we keep some kind of property tax (preferably Land Value based) in our tax plans.

The message has been brought to you by Lib Dems ALTER (Action for Land-value Taxation and Economic Reform) :-)"

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